Maine Election Pool Results - Part 2
(In case you missed it: part 1)
The glory of victory, the agony of defeat, all ahead as the winners of the 2009 election prediction betting pool are announced.
First, however, is Question 3.
The attempted repeal of the school consolidation law went down 42-58, likely due to spending on behalf of corporate allies of Governor Baldacci, a lack of public campaigning by the proponents, and an electorate that mostly lived in already-consolidated districts and didn't see a need to change the law back.
Here, Nathan D.'s precise predictions, usually to the hundredth of a percent, finally paid off. Most entrants had this one losing, but by a closer margin than the actual result.
The degree by which Question 2 lost surprised a lot of people on election night, and no one in the pool predicted such a lopsided victory. Ryan T-S came the closest, despite his bold decision not to make his numbers add up to 100%. Tony R. came in second (and came much closer to proper arithmetic, but also didn't quite make it to 100).
Most participants had Question 1 going in the other direction and with a closer result. Only two entrants had the veto winning by a wider margin than the actual 53-47 result.
One participant who did predict a wide margin against equal marriage was Christian Civic League Administrator Mike Hein, who included a rather prescient timeline along with his prediction; quoted here with permission.
“It will be a long night for Question 1 supporters and opponents,” wrote Hein. “8pm - 10pm will show a significant No vote; at midnight it will be too close to call; by 9am on Wednesday, it will end up 55 - 45 with Yes winning.”
So, finally, we come to the winners of the 2009 Election Pool. Here are the top 10:
Dan B., last year's winner, finished just out of the top three.
This year's third place winner is Harris Parnell, State Director of the Maine League of Young Voters. You can read her full reaction to the election results here.
Second place goes to blogger Derek Viger, who writes The Maine View.
The best electoral prognosticator for 2009 is Sean Flaherty, state representative for District 127 in Scarborough and an organizer for Planned Parenthood of Northern New England. You can find his website here.
If you're wondering how Flaherty won, his comment on last week's post might offer a clue. He described his strategy for nailing the results of Question 5 as "Gut instinct, baby... no research required!"
All three winners will be receiving their prize of political stickers in the mail soon. If you want to know exactly what they won, I suggest you start following them on twitter.
For full results, including how each entrant guessed on each question, check out the complete chart here.