Polls and anecdotal evidence show a significant number of voters switching from Libby Mitchell to Eliot Cutler in the waning days of the Maine gubernatorial race out of concern about the likely election of Paul LePage.
Equality Maine, for instance, sent out an email today asking supporters to "please vote for the pro-marriage candidate who you believe has the best chance of beating LePage" and included a polling average showing Cutler several points ahead of Mitchell.
LePage with 39% of the vote, Cutler at 29%, Mitchell at 24%, Moody at 4%, Scott with 1% and 2% still undecided, with a margin of error of 4.19% (95 times out of 100) – that’s the result of a new poll of 546 likely voters conducted by the Maine People’s Resource Center and sponsored by Down East.
Eliot Cutler, who has now by almost all accounts risen into second place ahead of Libby Mitchell in the governor's race, still has an Everest to climb to equal LePage's huge lead, but he's certainly not giving up.
The endorsement of Angus King, one of Maine's most popular political figures, should give him a boost going in to the final days. Here's a clip from his press conference today:
Dean Scontras is now up by 4 points, 45% to 41% in his race against Congresswoman Chellie Pingree, according to the last Critical Insights poll. This is within the poll's 5.7% margin of error.
The last Pan Atlantic SMS Group poll, released today, is the first to show Eliot Cutler with a larger percentage of the vote than Libby Mitchell, outside of the poll's margin of error.
In the poll of 400 likely voters, LePage leads with 37%, followed by Cutler with 31%, Mitchell with 22%, Moody with 3% and Kevin Scott with 1% of the vote. 7% are undecided. The poll has a 4.9% margin of error, 95 times out of 100.
New survey results from Public Policy Polling released last night are very close to the numbers released by Rasmussen earlier in the day. PPP has the race at 40% for lepage, 28% for Cutler, and 24% for Mitchell in a survey of 1,812 likely voters.
A new Rasmussen poll show released today shows Republican Paul LePage with a commanding lead in the Maine governor's race. In the 500-person poll, LePage leads with 40% of the vote with Democrat Libby Mitchell and independent Eliot Cutler tied for second with 26% each.
Now’s the time in an election when you often see an increase in negative ads. That’s partly because now is the time when candidates in close races and their supporters get desperate and partly because it’s more difficult to respond to a negative ad this late in the election, making them a bit more effective.
You see these kinds of negative ads mostly from outside groups, who don’t have to worry as much as campaigns do about driving up their own negatives by going on the attack.
I'm proud to announce the start of the most exciting election prediction pool yet. Last year, I introduced the concept of prizes. This year I'm introducing the concept of good prizes.
This year's pool is sponsored by both Down East and the Kennebec Journal and prizes for winners include Red Claws tickets (thanks to the KJ) and a Down East 2011 calendar.
The poll first reported on last night by the Portland Press Herald, which shows Libby Mitchell at 20%, independent Eliot Cutler at 19% and Republican Paul LePage leading them both with 32%, is certainly a departure from previous surveys and must, at this point, be considered an outlier until more polling is done. (Both PPP and CI are back in the field next week.)