The Tipping Point Blog Archive 2010
This election’s prediction pool is a study in contrasts. Libby Mitchell’s success in the Democratic race, it seems, was easy to predict. The size of Republican Paul LePage’s margin of victory, however, was a surprise even to his most engaged supporters.
For this election, I’ve split the results into three sections (the Democratic primary, the Republican primary, and the ballot questions) and the winner in each will win a button from a Maine campaign.
The big surprise from last night's gubernatorial primary was definitely the overwhelming victory on the Republican side by Tea Party favorite Paul LePage. LePage winning isn't shocking — he has long been considered one of the top four candidates — but the margin he won by must bring with it a new examination of the power of the right wing within the Maine GOP electorate, a group previously notable for their moderation.
Elections are the ultimate performance evaluation. Next week, the merit of years of strategy and months of hard campaigning from each of eleven gubernatorial candidates will be decided in one day of voting.
What do you think will happen?
Or, perhaps a more important question: Do you think you’re smarter than Rep. Sean Flaherty?
Of the twenty-nine districts with contested primaries for state representative in Maine this year, District 119 is by far the most confusing.
Somewhere around six different candidates are seeking the seat being vacated by term-limited legislator Herb Adams. Megan Sanborn will definitely be on the ballot as a Republican, but how many opponents she’ll have and who they’ll be is up in the air.
When I first wrote about the strange case of Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Abbott’s campaign obtaining and using the GOP delegate list before the other Republican candidates, I thought it was just a small piece of campaign errata and likely the result of a simple misunderstanding.
Pat McGowan loves to campaign.
When we spoke last week in the early afternoon, he had already put in an eleven-hour day. He was on the road since 3 a.m. in order to shake hands at the gate of the Rumford mill at 4:15, had already appeared on Biddeford public access television, met with local officials, and toured a wind power site. After our phone interview, he was headed out to distribute campaign signs and then a fair trade forum at Oxford Hills High School and then to bed at 10 p.m.
On June 8, the Governor’s race and the tax reform veto referendum will be headlining the ballot, but there are also more than thirty contested legislative primaries throughout the state.
The four primary races for seats in the Maine State Senate could have a great deal of influence on the final outcome in what is expected to be a close contest in November.
Three candidates (Democrats Donna Dion and John Richards and Green Lynne Williams) have fallen out of the race for the Blaine House since I last wrote an analysis of campaign finance reports, and three new candidates (Democrat Pat McGowan and Republicans Bill Beardsley and Steve Abbott) have joined.
This Friday there’s an election in Maine that could have huge repercussions throughout the state. It’s not a people’s veto over taxes or a hard-fought gubernatorial primary; it’s an off-season, single-issue municipal referendum in the town of Orrington, population 3,526.
Tomorrow that strange band of anti-government activists called the Tea Party will once again gather in public parks (you know, the ones paid for with taxes) throughout Maine to rail against perceived injustices.
They may not get as much attention as the topless march did last week, but chances are there’s going to be someone dressed like Paul Revere waving a sign comparing Obama to Stalin on your evening news.