The Tipping Point Blog Archive 2010
Here are my thoughts on the subject, from my conversation by email with Al on election day:
I'll be waiting a little bit to announce the full results of the prediction pool, as the last numbers come in and the last recounts are decided, but I've decided to do the Governor's race a bit early - mostly because that Red Claws game was coming up quickly and we needed to pick one of the winners to receive the prize.
So here are the results from the main event:
Democratic State Representative Michael Willette of District 5 in Presque Isle switched parties Friday, increasing the Republicans' majority in the House. Pending recounts, this will bring the GOP total to 78, with 72 Democrats and one unenrolled member. The move wasn't entirely unexpected. Willette's son Alexender ran successfully as a Republican in District 7 this election and Michael Willette had one of the most conservative voting histories among House democrats during the 124th Legislature.
A dismissive quote by Susan Collins on Sarah Palin's presidential plans in a recent Kenebec Journal column has received attention on national political blogs.
Republicans took the first steps toward taking formal control of state government today.
Governor-elect Paul LePage announced the members of his transition committe: Tarren Bragdon, head of the conservative Maine Heritage Policy Center; John Butera, executive director of the Central Maine Growth Council, a Waterville-based economic development organization; and Ann Robinson, an attorney for the Maine Republican Party. Together they will pave the way for him to assume the reins of the executive branch,
Most major media outlets in Maine will have coverage of election results on their websites as returns are reported. Last year, the newspapers had the best updating results feeds. Here are the election sites of the major dailies:
Both the Kennebec Journal and Sun Journal are holding live chats on their sites.
With the election prediction pool now closed, here are the final averages from the 89 entries we recieved (Yes, not everyone's entries added up to 100%):
Polls and anecdotal evidence show a significant number of voters switching from Libby Mitchell to Eliot Cutler in the waning days of the Maine gubernatorial race out of concern about the likely election of Paul LePage.
Equality Maine, for instance, sent out an email today asking supporters to "please vote for the pro-marriage candidate who you believe has the best chance of beating LePage" and included a polling average showing Cutler several points ahead of Mitchell.
LePage with 39% of the vote, Cutler at 29%, Mitchell at 24%, Moody at 4%, Scott with 1% and 2% still undecided, with a margin of error of 4.19% (95 times out of 100) – that’s the result of a new poll of 546 likely voters conducted by the Maine People’s Resource Center and sponsored by Down East.
Eliot Cutler, who has now by almost all accounts risen into second place ahead of Libby Mitchell in the governor's race, still has an Everest to climb to equal LePage's huge lead, but he's certainly not giving up.
The endorsement of Angus King, one of Maine's most popular political figures, should give him a boost going in to the final days. Here's a clip from his press conference today: